STRATEGIC ANALYSIS: THE AIR TRANSPORT MARKET IN CRISIS

Anton Koren, Head of the Transport Strategy Center (TSC), spoke live on RBC on March 10, 2026, about airlines' adaptation to new geopolitical realities, tariffs, and much more.

Context
The closure of airspace over the Middle East and Israel has hit repatriation flights: airline losses from March 2 to 10 are estimated at 1 billion rubles. The reasons include empty capacity on the first leg, extended routes, and the suspension of ticket sales.

Losses from Closed Destinations
Rosaviatsiya suspended ticket sales to the Persian Gulf countries until March 14 and to Israel until March 20. Carriers are suffering losses due to low aircraft load factors and forced route extensions.

Airport Tariffs: Inflation and Costs
Moscow airports have increased airport fees and ground handling charges. The increase in rates at the Moscow air hub is planned and driven by inflation, notes Anton Koren. Regarding Aurora Airlines' initiative to eliminate airport fees, in the regions, particularly in the Far East, airport fees and ground handling already account for 30% or more of the flight cost. Subsidy mechanisms are already in place. To equalize fare levels, it is necessary to increase the level of federal and regional subsidies.

Import Substitution: Plans Shift, but Fleet Size Remains Strong
VEB RF forecasts that by 2030, the share of domestically produced aircraft will be only a third of the planned figure (the previous target was 50%). However, thanks to service life extensions and an effective maintenance and repair system for foreign aircraft, current traffic volumes will be maintained for the foreseeable future. Substitution will be slower, but even in a few years, with delays in domestic fleet deliveries, there will be no significant decline in traffic. Moreover (see previous forecasts on our channel), the decline in Russian airline traffic is offset by growth in foreign airline traffic.

The Middle East is closed, with a reorientation toward Asia, Turkey, and Egypt, but Asia requires wide-body, long-haul aircraft.
The shift in tourism demand toward Asia has revealed a structural shortage of long-haul aircraft. Russia needs wide-body, long-haul aircraft, which Russian airlines lack. Replacing them with narrow-bodies is economically difficult; some of the aircraft fleet will be transit flights, but this will allow the route network to be maintained.

Spare Parts Logistics: Diversification Saves the Day
Component supplies are geographically distributed, and airlines have sufficient reserves. No critical disruptions to maintaining airworthiness are expected due to the war in the Middle East. The main task for air carriers is to reallocate their fleet to new destinations.

Conclusion
The industry is entering a phase of forced adaptation: rising costs are being offset by service life extensions for older aircraft, and demand is shifting to Asia. The war in the Middle East has exacerbated the aircraft fleet imbalance, leading to a shortage of wide-body aircraft. It is highly likely that this imbalance will favor the development of foreign airlines on routes to Russia in the coming years.
 

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