TSC PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORT AND ECONOMIC BALANCE OF THE EAEU AS A TOOL FOR INCREASING THE STABILITY OF THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM IN EURASIA
« BackOn March 27, the Eurasian Economic Commission, together with the Expert Centre for Sustainable Mobility in Transport of the United Nations Association of Russia, the International Road Transport Union, the Research Institute of Automobile Transport, with the participation of the Eurasian Development Bank, Sberbank, JSC GLONASS, the Transport Strategy Center (TSC) and many other organizations, held an international round table: “Sustainable Transport: International Road Freight Transport in Eurasia”.
The event was held at the EEC headquarters and became a platform for direct communication between representatives of government agencies, businesses and experts from the EAEU countries on the most important issues of organizing international road transport.
The round table was opened by the Minister of Energy and Infrastructure of the EEC Arzybek Kozhoshev, in his speech he noted: “The modern transport industry is undergoing significant changes.
In the context of increased dynamics of changes in global socio-economic processes, redistribution of commodity flows and transformation of global logistics, issues of increasing the sustainability of transportation are of particular importance."
The round table's industry sessions discussed the importance of road transport in the global transport system, as well as pressing issues of international coordination of countries to ensure the continuity and stability of logistics supply chains, the introduction of innovations and intelligent systems, as well as issues of digitalization of transport documents.
The round table considered a wide range of issues related to national plans for the development of the transport system, logistics services, the introduction of digital technologies in the industry, the development and application of the regulatory framework. The participants of the round table paid special attention to the need to ensure the sustainability of transport operators and the transport system as a whole.
The round table was attended by the Head of the Consortium Transport Strategy Center (TSC) Anton Koren, who presented a report on the use of effective tools to improve the sustainability of the transport system.
In particular, Anton Koren reported:
Theses of the report by the head of the Transport Strategy Center (TSC) Anton Vladimirovich Koren at the round table "Sustainable Transport: International Road Freight Transport in Eurasia", dedicated to the UN Decade for Sustainable Transport declared by the UN General Assembly
March 27, 2025.
Creating modern analytical solutions to ensure the sustainability of multimodal supply chains in the Eurasian region
Koren Anton Vladimirovich
General Director of the Transport Strategy Center (TSC)
Freight transportation in total by the main modes of transport is growing in many countries; in Russia, for example, in 2024 it increased by 5.5%. At the same time, there are opposite trends in certain main modes of transport: a 4.2% decrease in rail transport, and an 8.3% increase in road transport.
In terms of considering road freight transportation, shippers are switching from rail to road transport.
It is especially indicative, for example, that the volume of freight transportation between Russia and China by road transport increased by 70% in 2024 and has the potential for further growth. Problems with the capacity of infrastructure in one mode of transport created conditions for the growth of road transport, and growth in volumes, but not in revenues and profits. The system is not developing in a balanced way.
A recent analysis of statistical data from one of the largest digital platforms in the transport sector showed that tariffs in the road freight market have decreased by 16%, while according to carriers, company costs have increased by 30% year-on-year. This is a total of 46% change in economic conditions over 1 year.
According to the AvtoGruzEx association, since the beginning of 2025, the average search time for shipments in another mass segment of transportation by tarpaulin vehicles has increased by 67% year-on-year, with up to 20% of the fleet idle. But this is an evolutionary process, and another reason is the dynamic expansion of marketplaces' own vehicle fleets.
These examples clearly demonstrate the low level of sustainability of the road transport business.
Under the prism of sustainability, we focus on the question: what happens to road freight carriers that switch to servicing alternative transport flows, which then, when resolving issues with rail transport, will again be forced to leave this replacement market en masse. They will find themselves in even greater crisis conditions without a load. That is, the issues of infrastructure planning for one type of transport, if successfully resolved, threaten the sustainability of another.
Let's consider how to ensure the sustainability of the functioning of transport operators and the transport system as a whole.
In transport planning, one of the important strategic directions for the development of the transport system of both the country and the macroregion is the accelerated development of infrastructure, both servicing freight flows, vehicle fleets, taking into account their:
balanced development
with the achievement of the maximum economic effect for manufacturers, shippers.
This is possible with the understanding that the infrastructure is built on the basis of reasonable forecast indicators for the development of the freight base, including using the transport and economic balance (TEB) tool.
For example, in the Russian Federation, much attention is paid to this strategic planning tool. Many market participants see obvious positive aspects at the first stages of the implementation of the TEB: a single source of actual and forecast data on demand, routes, infrastructure.
But it is also important to remember that one of the basic tasks of the FEBS is to form the basis for the transportation of goods in the most efficient and economically sound way, on optimal modes of transport, reducing overall transport costs in the economy.
The main transport infrastructure should be formed with the help of the FEBS for these economically sound types and modalities of transportation.
In order to analyze the options for developing the EAEU transport system, forming an economically sound infrastructure on transport corridors, with its accelerated development, it is proposed to consider the development of the EAEU FEBS on a regular basis, providing it for effective planning to market players and investment groups.
How is it proposed to form the basis for the EAEU transport and economic balance.
First of all, based on state statistical monitoring systems, on unified data. Here, unification of statistical data of the EAEU member states is obviously necessary in order to form uniform approaches to planning.
Digital platforms. The era of digitalization has arrived and is having a powerful impact on the market. In Russia alone, there are already more than 50 digital transport and logistics platforms that consolidate information containing data on transportation, which could become a useful addition to basic state statistical data for planning. Own platforms are being created, mainly with the functionality of transport exchanges, in the EAEU countries.
Earlier, at one of the meetings with large multimodal transport operators, it was discussed that the largest players are not ready to share information, and from their commercial point of view, this is justified. But in a number of types of transport, this issue has long been resolved. The data is consolidated in an independent analytical center and transferred to the database of this independent center anonymously, that is, the main commercial information is not disclosed, but the issues of infrastructure planning, systemic justified development of the industry are resolved. Thus, data from digital platforms is also a very useful source in the formation of the FEB.
An example - from the experience of developing the TSRT more than 400 strategic projects, in each project with the analysis of freight or passenger flows, the center can identify both types of transport with an effective system of state statistical observation, as well as with a consolidated statistical observation system from independent industry analytical centers, and not fully effective.
An example of an effective system in aviation - implementing developments and investment projects in the EAEU, in Asia, in the Middle East, earlier until 2022 in Europe - all data in all regions of the world have a single system and structure, they are open, accessible to all market players. Effective infrastructure planning with high accuracy occurs.
An example of a not fully effective statistical monitoring system is freight transport. According to the experience of the TSRT projects to justify the creation of large multimodal transport and logistics centers (TLC), with a high share of motor transport operations, not all countries and regions have a unified system of statistical monitoring and analysis that allows for effective infrastructure planning. Errors of several tens of percent in investment projects worth from 12 to 40 billion rubles in transport hubs can lead to the emergence of factors of development instability.
And here the transport and economic balance tool comes to the aid of strategists and investors. The economic effect of using the FEB, taking into account the impact on the correct justification of technical and economic parameters of the infrastructure, on the choice of optimal least expensive options for transporting goods only on the scale of one state, can be measured in hundreds of billions of rubles.
Timing and frequency of planning the FEB.
The most optimal planning period seems to be at least 7-10 years, taking into account the implementation of infrastructure projects.
We consider the frequency of updating the data to be appropriate at the first stage once every 3 years, then, taking into account the development of the methodology, move on to an annual update of the FEB of the EAEU.
The scientific potential in the participating countries is high enough to effectively solve this problem. The methodology is known and understandable. A number of research centers, including in the Russian Federation, are systematically engaged in this, have a high level of expertise. The Center for Strategic Research in Transport (CSRT) is ready to share modern methods of planning and forecasting, new ideas for using data from digital platforms, for using neural networks in analysis and forecasting, artificial intelligence, among other things.
We propose to conduct research work on the formation of the EAEU FEB, with the participation of leading institutes and research centers of the EAEU.
Expected results and proposals for the draft resolution
The formation of the EAEU FEB will ensure:
planning of cargo flows for the most profitable modes of transport for shippers, saving funds for shippers and consignees, and generally reducing transport costs for the economy of the EAEU countries.
calculation and justification of forecast loads on infrastructure and selection of the optimal option for reconstruction and development of ports, TLCs and other infrastructure.
and many other tasks with a high positive economic effect for market players. It is important to note, given the main issues discussed at the round table, that the presence of the EAEU FEB among market players as a tool for strategic planning and management will allow creating a sustainable transport system.
In conclusion, it is proposed to support the presented draft resolution of the round table on the topic: “Sustainable transport: international road freight transport in Eurasia”, timed to coincide with the UN Decade on Sustainable Transport declared by the UN General Assembly, and to additionally include in the resolution a proposal to develop international transport and economic balances (TEB) at the interregional level of several states, in particular in the EAEU space, as tools for increasing the sustainability of the development of transport systems.”
The round table was also attended by: Director of the Department of Transport and Infrastructure of the EEC Rustan Dzhenalinov, Director of the Department of Customs Legislation and Law Enforcement Practice of the EEC Alexander Titov, Deputy Director of the Department of Transport and Infrastructure of the EEC Leonid Sokolov, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation of the CIS Executive Committee, First Deputy Chairman of the United Nations Association of Russia, Vice-President of the World Federation of United Nations Associations Alexey Borisov, Director of the Department of Land and Water Transport under the Ministry of Transport and Communications of the Kyrgyz Republic Tariel Keldibekov, Head of the Permanent Mission of the IRU in Eurasia Vadim Zakharenko, President of the Union of International Road Carriers of the Republic of Kazakhstan Makhsat Saktaganov, Executive Director for Road Transport and Highways of the Union of Transport Workers of Kazakhstan Talgat Esengeldy, Director of the Association of International Road Carriers, Head of the Department of Automobile and Urban Passenger Transport of the Ministry of Transport and Communications of the Republic of Belarus Andrey Gladkiy, Director of the Sales Department of GLONASS JSC Vitaly Derkach, Executive Director - Deputy Head of the Project Unit of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), Executive Director of the Department for Work with the Public Sector of Sberbank PJSC and many other representatives of the transport industry, financial institutions of the Eurasian region.
Following the event, a resolution was adopted defining practical mechanisms for implementing the UN General Assembly initiative to proclaim a 10-year period dedicated to sustainable transport.
The Transport Strategy Center (TSC) is a consortium of leading research and consulting groups specializing in strategic and innovative transport planning.
The TSC team includes experts with extensive experience in planning, design, practical implementation and management of transport projects.
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