STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF LONG-HAUL AIR TRANSPORT

Anton Koren, Head of the Transport Strategy Center (TSC), spoke live on RBC about strategic decisions in the Russian aviation industry to ensure long-haul air travel.

Context

The shortage of long-haul aircraft in Russia was discussed during the broadcast. The reason for this was Aeroflot's deal to wet-lease a fourth Airbus A330 from the charter airline iFly.

A total of 720 aircraft are in service in the country, accounting for the majority of traffic. Of the 59 long-haul aircraft in the fleets of Russian airlines, 17 are currently undergoing maintenance.

For our country, long-haul aircraft are critically important for two purposes: ensuring national connectivity (flights to the Far East) and tourist travel (including to countries in Asia, Latin America, and Central America).

There are no new aircraft deliveries (either foreign or domestic) in this segment. There are currently no domestic wide-body aircraft, and none are expected in the near future. All promising new types under development are short- and medium-haul, as well as regional.

The solution for tourist destinations is replacing wide-body aircraft with more common narrow-body aircraft (Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 families). This reduces economic efficiency and increases the cost per seat kilometer, but allows the route network to be maintained. Freed-up long-haul aircraft are being redirected to provide connectivity between central Russia and the Far East, as well as to the most profitable international destinations.

The main challenge is the overhaul of engines and complex components, which remain dependent on imports and repairs in other countries. However, the forecast for 2026 assumes that traffic volumes will remain at last year's levels, meaning the existing fleet will remain available, and aviation will continue to meet demand at last year's levels.

However, meeting air travel demand at current levels does not mean there won't be unmet demand in all segments. Experts estimate that effective demand currently exceeds supply by tens of percent. The Center for Strategic Research estimates that organic growth, with full demand satisfaction, will be achieved in the long-haul segment after 2032, and in regional and local transport after 2034, provided the stated production schedules for all new domestic aircraft types are met.

Details in the video on the TSC Telegram channel



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